Generic Ballot Measurement in the United States

For those of you closely following the political landscape in the United States and particularly poll results showing the Democrats in a lead and ready to take back Congress, check out this post by Mystery Pollster (aka Mark Blumenthal) about what the generic ballot means and how we should take it with a grain of salt.

It also makes reference to a recent Democracy Corps poll released on three lower tier, potential Democratic Party pick ups this fall. From Mystery Pollster:

Right now, however, the value of the generic vote is mostly for comparisons with polls conducted by the same organzation using identical language at this point in prior election cycles. For example, the Pew Center did just that and concluded, "there has been only a handful of occasions since 1994 when either party has held such a sizable advantage in the congressional horse race."

But remember the limitations: These generic questions may be telling us more about voters' general attitudes about politics right now than about their candidate preference. And, as with any poll, tomorrow's opinions may be different.

So while there is reason to be optimistic about a Democratic takeover, it should be cautious optimism.