GOP in trouble

As the 2006 mid-term elections approach, Professor Charles Franklin at the University of Wisconsin has put together some public opinion history regarding the approval rating of the President in 2006.


Prof. Franklin writes:

President Bush's approval rating is on course to set a record low for mid-term elections. The magnitude of the problem is greater than commonly perceived. The previous record low approval in the last Gallup poll of October was 41% for President Truman in 1950. Based on approval trends in 2005-06, the President and Congressional Republicans are facing an election day 2006 approval of between 20.4% and 40.8%. (The range is highlighted in the graph for 2006. The "dot" is the estimate based on the trend in most of 2005, which is less than half the current rate of decline.)

He conculdes his analysis by arguing:

I was frankly shocked at the above results. Other presidents have suffered low approval ratings, and President Bush still stands above the lows of four of the ten other post-war presidents. But I had not appreciated how much the current approval is below other mid-term approval ratings, even without extrapolating current trends. We have simply never seen a president this unpopular going into a midterm election.

I will be surprised if the current rate of decline continues. But I will also be surprised by a sustained upturn at the rate of November-January. Either would be an extreme outcome. But approval between the upper 20s and lower 30s seems entirely plausible. There is no precedent for a midterm with approval at those levels.

Basically - the GOP is screwed. The war in Iraq is not getting better. The scandals involving Karl Rove and lobbying are not going away and the immigration battle continues to put heat on the administration's handling of immgration reform. The only thing that can save the GOP's control of the House and Senate are the Democrats. If they cannot get their act together. It's over for them and it will be a generational opportunity to realign American politics.