The 2008 Presidential Line Up

A look at the 2008 Presidential line up from The Fix at the Washington Post:

THE DEMOCRATS

Evan Bayh: The Fix's dark horse in the presidential field, Indiana's Evan Bayh is working as hard as any other candidate in terms of his travel schedule and getting face time with key donors. He's also less conservative and less dull than most people think. Plus, Bayh will end 2006 with at least $10 million (and probably several million more) in his Senate campaign account, which he can transfer directly to a presidential committee. Bayh's challenge is to win, place or show in the '08 Iowa caucuses, since he has a natural geographic appeal there and has already been spending considerable time courting the state's voters. If Bayh doesn't make a strong showing in Iowa, it's hard to see how he stays competitive in New Hampshire and beyond. (Of course, it remains to be seen what state or states will be added by the Democratic National Committee to hold their primaries between Iowa and New Hampshire -- an X-factor in every Democratic hopeful's calculations.)

Hillary Rodham Clinton: When people ask why Clinton is in a class by herself in the Democratic field, the answer is money, money, money. Clinton has raised $40 million for her Senate reelection bid since 2001 and had roughly half that amount on hand at the end of March. She will likely close 2006 with between $20 million and $25 million in the bank. And here's the kicker: Every person who gave to her Senate campaign can ante up again for a presidential bid -- providing her with an even bigger head start over her opponents than her huge cash-on-hand total suggests. Liberals remain skeptical about Clinton because of her lack of outspokenness on the Iraq war, but after eight years without the White House they may swallow those doubts in hopes of winning back the nation's top office.

John Edwards: Though we are not numerically ranking the five candidates, Edwards has slipped a bit in our mind since the last presidential Line. Edwards and his strategists seem supremely confident that he can raise the $10 million (or more) he will need in the first quarter of 2007 in order to be competitive with the likes of Clinton, Bayh and Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry. Maybe. Edwards is the most naturally talented politician in the field, a raw charisma that paid major dividends in 2004. And he will benefit (as will Kerry) from having been through the wringer of national politics once before. But there just doesn't seem to be the same energy for Edwards in the insider community as there was at this time in 2002. Given his skills, we keep him on the Line but count us as skeptical about his fundraising strategy at the moment.

John Kerry: Our belief that the 2004 nominee will run again in 2008 keeps growing. Two weeks ago Kerry spoke at Faneuil Hall in Boston to mark the 35th anniversary of his testimony before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee after returning from Vietnam,. Kerry is also one of three candidates (Bayh and Clinton are the others) who will likely start 2007 with $10 million or more in a presidential account, ensuring him a spot on the Line for the foreseeable future. Kerry remains devoid of buzz among the chattering classes, but he has managed, somewhat remarkably, to reclaim his standing as a leader in the party over the last 18 months.

Mark Warner: After scanning through mounds of financial reports, we were amazed to find that Warner's Forward Together PAC had 23 employees at the end of March -- the second-largest staff maintained by a prospective Democratic presidential candidate other than Sen. Clinton's HILLPAC operation. And Warner's fundraising through the PAC -- $5 million since he began collecting cash for it last July -- is an extremely impressive total, especially considering that Warner never had to raise money under federal limits during his gubernatorial term. The story line of Warner as red-state governor has largely run its course; political insiders seem to be waiting for a new act from the Virginian. Given his past successes, we're pretty sure he'll have one.

THE REPUBLICANS

George Allen: The last month has not been Allen's best. He continues to labor under the dual burden of running for reelection this November while also traveling the country to keep his presidential prospects alive. And the senator seemed to be caught off guard by a New Republic profile (link is subscription-only) that details his youthful fascination with the Confederate flag. In the midst of the controversy, Virginia state Sen. Jeannemarie Devolites-Davis (the wife of U.S. Rep. Tom Davis) said on a local radio show that "if Jim Webb is [Allen's] opponent, [he] is going to have a very challenging year, particularly in Northern Virginia." Not exactly what the Allen people needed as they were scrambling to get out from under the New Republic story. But as we stated above, Allen is one of three GOP candidates who has the political team, national fundraising chops and policy credentials to compete for the nomination in two years.

Rudy Giuliani: What a difference a month makes. In April, we wroteAnne Dickerson, who served as the right hand man (er, woman) to Mercer Reynolds -- the finance chairman of President Bush's 2004 campaign; Dickerson will run Hizzoner's Solutions America PAC. Giuliani stopped in to Iowa earlier this week, the hotbed of presidential politics, for a fundraiser for state Rep. Jeff Lamberti. And he met with some key South Carolina operatives in New York City last month. Although a Giuliani candidacy now looks more likely, he must still find a way to appeal to conservatives despite his liberal views on abortion, gun control and gay rights. (and firmly believed) that there was little chance Giuliani would attempt a White House run. Today, it seems more likely than not that the former New York City mayor will jump into the contest. Giuliani announced Thursday that he has hired

Mike Huckabee: The Arkansas governor makes the Line for a second straight month largely on potential. Huckabee is the candidate seemingly best equipped to appeal to social conservatives (he is a Baptist minister) while also offering an unorthodox appeal to other elements within the party (note the media coverage he's gotten from his emphasis on nutrition, exercise and weight loss). But -- and it is a big but -- Huckabee just hasn't capitalized on the momentum he had coming into 2006. It doesn't help that his decision to sign a minimum wage increase last month drew the ire of fiscal hawks in the party -- led by the Club For Growth, which called Huckabee a "liberal." The window for Huckabee to move into the top tier is still open, but not as wide as it once was.

John McCain: American Research Group, an independent polling firm, this week released a series of surveys on possible 2008 Republican primary match-ups that includes data collected in key early presidential states like Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. McCain led the field in each of the three states, and without Giuliani as an option, the Arizona senator was lapping the competition. While polling at this stage of the 2008 race is largely a function of name identification, the surveys show that McCain sits in the driver's seat in each of the three early contests. McCain has made his ascent to the top of the Republican pack look easy, but he still must answer lingering doubts about his Republican bona fides if he hopes to become the party's nominee.

Mitt Romney: It's hard to underestimate the importance of Romney playing a leadership role in the passage of legislation to mandate health care insurance for every Massachusetts resident. It has drawn him favorable coverage from the dean of political reporters -- The Post's own David Broder -- and it gives Romney something to tout on the campaign trail -- a sterling example of his ability to forge compromise and solve problems. Romney is also moving around the country as aggressively as any other Republican candidate. For all the talk of Romney's Mormonism as a potential hurdle, his religious affiliation also has its benefits. Witness a recent Romney fundraiser in Utah where he raked in better than $1 million -- a shockingly large total for a state not traditionally known for its political bankrolling.