CTV Poll Analysis is Warped

I just finished watching the CTV nightly news and was dismayed at how they covered the latest Strategic Counsel poll.

First, the Greens at 12%? That seems a bit high considering all the other polls, including SES, has them at a more modest number. This should really be the focus of the reporting. But alas, pollsters work in their own world, ignoring any other polls commissioned in between their own.

As for the "nosedive" comment, I think Gregg's analysis needs some context. The previous poll was conducted in December during the weekend of the Liberal leadership convention. Taking into account the margin of error (and Strategic Counsel has had its share of error if we remember their 2006 election polling), the Liberals and Conservatives are basically tied. In all reality, I think this poll is bogus. Though what is far worse is the manner in which the CTV reported the poll.

Can anyone say drive-by smear? In my opinion this was probably one of the worst attempts at political reporting in a long time. Maybe it was a make-up by the CTV for releasing the December poll in the first place.

Does it get attention? Yes.
It is headline worthy? Of course.
Was it good journalism? Hell no.

I don't think the Liberals should worry about this poll... and here's why.

I did a quick analysis of the 2006 Election Study released recently. The results of the survey showed that on Election Day in 2006, the Liberals lost a substantial block of voters who went to the Conservatives and the NDP. Also of note, the Green Party picked up more voters from the Liberals than they kept from the 2004 election.

Here is a chart I put together that outlines the entire 2,700 respondent panel. Along the columns are respondents behaviour during 2006. Along the rows are respondents reported behaviour in 2004.

		2006
		Lib	CP	NDP	Other	Bloc	Green	DNV
2004	Lib	22.0%	8.5%	4.7%	0.1%	0.8%	1.3%	2.3%
	CP	0.8%	22.5%	1.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.2%	1.1%
	NDP	1.0%	1.1%	9.1%	0.0%	0.3%	0.4%	0.5%
	Other	0.1%	1.4%	0.6%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.4%
	Bloc	0.3%	0.4%	0.6%	0.0%	7.5%	0.8%	0.1%
	Green	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%	1.2%	0.0%
	DNV	1.5%	2.4%	1.0%	0.1%	0.8%	0.3%	5.7%
	NE	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

As you can see, the 2006 election attracted a lot of voters who did not vote in 2004. The Liberals and Conservatives were the main beneficiaries of these new voters. Also of note here, 2.3% of the electorate who voted Liberal in 2004 choose to stay home in 2006.

The NDP was able to pick up 4.7% of the electorate from the Liberals, and one can assume that many will come back to the Liberal fold during the next election to prevent the Conservatives from winning again. Why? Because the Conservatives have basically dismantled social programs, threw away Kyoto and put more Canadian troops into Afghanistan. A Liberal government is far better than a Conservative one in the eyes of rational progressive voters.

The CTV poll is bad: bad polling and bad reporting. Watch it here.

I am not worried - Canadians still don't know who Dion is yet. Once they are given the choice, the Liberals will be well positioned to retake government, albeit with a minority government.